Disney's 3D fantasy "Alice in Wonderland" is sure to repeat atop the domestic boxoffice this weekend despite four wide releases hitting theaters Friday.
Tim Burton's latest Johnny Depp starrer opened with $116 million last weekend, so even a 60% drop would give "Alice" a $46 million sophomore session. That scenario, though, probably is overly pessimistic.
Sunday's grosses were pinched a bit by preoccupation with the Oscar telecast, so the frame represents an easy comparison. That has some predicting that "Alice" will fall 50% or less in its second weekend. As a result, the motion-capture/live-action hybrid might climb above $200 million through its first 10 days.
Meanwhile, Universal's Matt Damon-toplined "Green Zone" appears the strongest of the weekend's market debutants.
Directed by Paul Greengrass ("The Bourne Ultimatum"), the Iraq War thriller is tracking well with a broad range of demos and could open with $14 million-$16 million. But with negative costs of at least $100 million, "Green" will have to take in plenty of green for at least a few frames if the R-rated pic is to enter the profit zone.
A recent surplus of R-rated releases doesn't help its weekend prospects, and early reviews have been mixed. So favorable word-of-mouth among opening audiences will be needed to stoke momentum for future frames.
Elsewhere, Fox Searchlight bows the Forest Whitaker starrer "Our Family Wedding," targeting urban demos. Rated PG-13, "Wedding" could stuff $11 million or more in its gift pouch. Summit Entertainment sends out Robert Pattinson starrer "Remember Me," a youth-seeking PG romantic drama, with prospects of fetching a similar sum.
Paramount opens the R-rated romantic comedy "She's Out of My League," which boasts a youthful cast and is likely to register only $8 million or so through Sunday.
Also today, Summit and Canadian partner Maple re-expand "The Hurt Locker" to 348 domestic playdates -- up from 275 last weekend -- following its big success at the Academy Awards.
But despite a victory in the oft-lucrative best picture category, "Locker" is unlikely to reap dramatic new business theatrically as the Iraq War thriller already is out on home video. The film's cume is approaching $15 million at the cusp of the frame.
Fox Searchlight's "Crazy Heart," for which topliner Jeff Bridges copped the best actor statuette Sunday, is set for roughly 1,500 engagements in an expansion from last weekend's 1,274.
Industrywide, the weekend will be compared with a $101 million 2009 frame topped by the $24.4 million bow of Disney family adventure "Race to Witch Mountain."
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